StormWatch 12 Summer Forecast 2019

The StormWatch 12 Weather Team will get your prepared for the 2019 summer season.

Posted: May 22, 2019 10:04 PM
Updated: May 22, 2019 10:04 PM

Speech to Text for StormWatch 12 Summer Forecast 2019

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newswatch 12 app anthan one month away. a make your summer plans, in the next 30 minutes, find out what kind of weather you can expect this season with your forecast for the summer of 2019 after last year's historically smoky summer. local businesses aren't taking a chance again this year. we'll show how they are preparing should it be another summer of smoke. [a4]headlines-wipe vo: hiking trails summer means hiking for many people... we'll take a look at what you should know before you head into the great outdoors this summer on trails scorched by fires. [a5]show open-sot welcome to the stormwatch 12 summer forecast. i'm chief the stormwatch 12 weather team has got you covered for this summer. meteorologist caitlin harvey is at the national weather service with a closer look at one of summer's biggest weather threats.... lightning [a10]show intro-caitlin thanks, matt. the national weather service has some pretty cool new tools to help us all stay prepared this fire season. i'll dive into how this new technology can help us tackle lightning in just a bit. and meteorologist jeff donovan is out at emigrant lake with the impact this winter and spring has had on lake and reservoir levels for summer. thanks matt. i am taking a look at how our precipitation this winter impacted our snowpack and what this could mean for our reservoir levels as we go through the summer months re with the national weather service in medford to talk about new lightning detection equipment they have this year and how it could impact us in a good way as we head into fire season.." i met with shad keene, a meteorologist with noaa to ask him about their new lightning detection technology. shad keene : "one of the most important things for us here at the office is detecting cloud- to-ground lightning . the geostationary lightning mapping tool, or glm, is aboard the new satellite that we use to help detect lightning from outer space.. so if you can identify those lightning strikes that are occurring in the cloud first, you can provide a little lead time before you get the more dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning strikes. " and every second counts when fighting fires. every lightning strike can spark a fire, as we know all too well after a particularly bad lightning storm in the valley last summer. using these new tools, the national weather service can detect favorable storms or specific clouds for lightning and call partner agencies, such as cal fire or the oregon department of forestry, to give them a heads up to potential lightning-produced fires. shad keene : "we see hot and dry conditions, good chances for lightning like july 15th last year, and we're in close communication with our partner agencies to, again, help save lives and property during a dangerous fire season." this new lightning detection equipment means more clarity in where lightning strikes. it means better information about where new fires may start in thunderstorms. [a19]hiking after fires-intro the fires from last summer left their mark on southern oregon. more than 228 thousand acres were burned by the klondike and taylor creek fires. dozens of hiking trails are impacted. i visited one of those trails that was scorched to show you how people are working to get them reopened. the taylor creek trail near galice has always been a popular, well- maintained trail among hikers... that was before the taylor creek fire last july. 7:18 "and then the fire cameyeah, it was very heartbreaking for all of us." eric ball is with the southern oregon trail alliance. 1:18 "it was a surprising amount of damage. everything from trees to falling across the trail and in the trail, which you might expect, tree roots burning out underneath the trail leaving large holes, landslides, some very significant landslides and rockslides." one of the bridges along the trail was even destroyed. nat pop after the fires were put out, ball and his crew got to work to open the trail back up. 2:36 "we've been out clearing trees and raking rocks off the trails ever since." stand up --- "a lot of work is being done here along the taylor creek trail. it runs 11.5 miles but still a mile and a half has to be cleared from the damage caused by the taylor creek fire." the southern oregon trail alliance has opened back up several trails in the area. 05:44 "we rely heavily on partner groups to help us take care of trails whether it's in a fire area or not." chamise kramer with the u.s. forest services says there are several safety reminders to keep in mind if you go out hiking in these burn scar areas. 01:59 "so we really encourage people to not go hiking in burn areas when there's high winds predicted. those trees come down pretty easily when they're dead." trees can even fall years after the fire. kramer also says with less shade in those burned areas, extra water and ample sunscreen is important. nat pop back at the taylor creek trail, signs of renewed life are everywhere. ball hopes more people will enjoy all their hard work this summer. 7:44 "it's great to run into people on the trails that are enjoying them and benefiting from the trails being cleared and open." we have links for you to find trail conditions this summer. just head on over to smoke from last summer's fires crippled southern oregon and northern california. medford had 31 days of unhealthy or worse air quality days with 27 days for klamath falls ....the worst since records began in 2001 there was a stretch of nearly five weeks where air quality didn't even improve to moderate in the rogue valley from late july through late august. [a23]smoke level breakdown-reality interview we can only hope that this summer isn't a repeat. however, here's a reminder of the different air quality categories. moderate means there could be a moderate health concern for a small group of people unusually sensitive to pollution and smoke. unhealthy for sensitive groups means sensitive groups like the elderly, children and those with respiratory issues will start to feel effects when it gets to unhealthy, everyone will start to feel some adverse effects with more serious effects to sensitive groups very unhealthy means worsening effects and hazardous would mean emergency conditions effects likely for the entire population. smoke in the air is more than just a health risk, it has an impact on our tourism industry. newswatch 12's mari nelson dug into how some of the most prominent companies in southern oregon are adapting to smoke. mari says: "smoke impacts can have a domino effect on businesses across southern oregon. with smoke being so prominent in the valley, companies like the shakespeare festival are finding ways to work around a circumstance they can't change." paul says "we went from 7 shows that were affected, to nine, to two, to 3, to zero and last year to 26" 26 canceled shows in 20-18 alone...called for action. this year...instead of making a decision to cancel or move a performance the morning of....o-s-f will be making that decision up to a full month in advance starting the end of july. paul says: "we're going to sell those 400 tickets and we've going to make a decision whether we move for the entire month to the mountain avenue theatre." the mountain avenue theatre is on ashland high schools campus... it has 400 seats. o-s-f typically sells about 800 tickets for their outdoor shows... but just in case the show gets moved inside ... paul says: "we'll only be selling 400 tickets so patrons will know they have a guaranteed seat at a performance whether it's in the elizibethian theatre outdoors or at the indoor mountain avenue theatre down the street." last year, o-s-f show cancellations led some tourists to cancel their trips altogether which can affect companies like indigo creek outfitters. this year, owner will volpert is changing the way he communicates with customers. will says: "we've been really candid with customers who have called and inquired about trips, especially folks who have a lot of flexibility in their schedule, we encourage them to try to book earlier rather than late july or august." he says with so many rafting locations in southern oregon, they've planned back up routes for their trips if one section of the river becomes too smokey. will says: "each year that we're able to survive whatever nature throws at us, we're going to be a lot stronger." paul says: i think the biggest thing we want to make sure of is that everyone is safe and has a great experience." in ashland, mari nelson, newswatch 12. the final snow survey of the season is in the books... and we were there as they took those measurements. coming up next, see where the snowpack stands and what it means for this summer. many folks will want to get out on the water this summer. we'll take a look at our area lake and reservoir levels throughout southern oregon and northern california. but first, a trip to the coast and a chance to test your weather knowledge! what was the hottest temperature recorded at brookings? was it.. a) 112 in 1983 b) 108 in 2008 c) 105 in 2015 or d) 98 in 1969 stormwatch 12 summer forecast. before the break, we asked you what was the hottest temperature recorded at brookings. the answer is... b) 108 set back on july 9, 2008! it was a wetter winter and spring for snow up in the mountains this year, especially compared to last year. crater lake picked up over 400 inches of snow since last july. as you can see, last winter, crater lake picked up significantly less. this should be good news, but compared to average for the snow season, crater lake still fell short by over eight feet! crater lake has been measuring snow at the park since 1931. check this out...over the last several decades, the average annual snowfall for each decade at the park headquarters has been going down. back in the 1930s and 1940s... the average annual snowfall was up over 600 inches. over the years that's been dwindling. and now in our current decade...the average annual snowfall is only just over 400 inches.that's quite the drop in snowfall ...over 200 inches! stormwatch 12 meteorologist jeff donovan dug deeper into : "after our very wet winter, it is the snowpack that is going to help us sustain our reservoir levels through the summer months." to find out just how much snow we had this winter, i set out with shavon haynes and jake johnstone of the oregon water resources department for the last snow survey of the year. shavon haynes : "that snow in the mountains is often going to create or be the source of water later on in the summer months." haynes and johnstone conduct snow surveys by driving a snow tube into the ground to determine snow depth. the tube with the snow inside is then weighed to provide a weight of the sample. multiple measurements are taken at multiple sites to give not only accurate measurements, but also to give a better picture of how snowpack is doing around the region. natpop jake johnstone : "in the rogue basin, it gives us a better idea of what we are going to be looking at for, you know, late season snowmelt that might continue to fill reservoirs and might help with irrigation and industry" dr. charles lane is an expert in hydrology with southern oregon university. he says not all the moisture we got this winter proved to be beneficial. dr. lane "those atmospheric river events, you know, when they hit the snowpack between that 5 and 6,000' level that's actually not helpful" : these long periods of substantial rain and warmer temperature cause rapid snowmelt and shrink our mountain snowpack. natpop : nonetheless, the average snowpack this year proved to be immensley beneficial to our region. jake johnstone : "we've become rather adjusted for lack of a better word in southern oregon to drier seasons" : the drought that has gripped southern oregon was eliminated this winter. however, even with this beneficial wet winter, there is no telling what implications this may have for our upcoming summer season. shavon haynes "the beauty of oregon is that things can always change. right now the outlook looks pretty good. you know, we got average snowpack but it's really kind of hard to say what's going to happen later in the summer" because the snowpack feeds our water supply, the water district would like to remind people that water temperatures are still very cold. [b7]wx app push-pkg with all of our dynamic weather across the region, you can keep you and your family safe by downloading the stormwatch 12 weather app. the stormwatch 12 weather app will give you those instant alerts during severe weather when you're on the go. we also have our latest video forecast at the top of the page if you happened to miss our newscast. with hour-by-hour forecasts and interactive radar, you can be informed on the weather pinpointed right to your current location! we even have rolled out recent updates to our mobile radar: you can now access new alert layers, weather conditions and map types. with new timelines in the past, present and future radar, you can track storms right alongside the stormwatch 12 weather team. to get our mobile app, search "stormwatch 12" in the app store. it's available to both apple and android. and a bit later...will it be a hot and dry summer? i'll break down that summer forecast coming up... n. we did see a wetter winter than we have seen in recent years. this did prove to be beneficial to our reservoir levels with many area lakes seeing water levels near capacity. you can see this trend is true in both northern california and southern oregon. these levels near capacity will certainly be valuable to our region as we progress through the summer months. if you have an amazon echo, you now have another way to stay connected with the stormwatch 12 weather team. by enabling the stormwatch 12 weather skill on your echo, getting your forecast is as easy as.. "alexa... flash briefing.." "from the stormwatch 12 weather team.. " "alexa, stop." the stormwatch 12 weather app, available on the amazon app store. just another way the stormwatch 12 weather team is watching out for you. [c5]tease three-up on vo what kind of weather can we expect for all your fun summer plan this year? your summer forecast is right after the break. but first... let's take a look back at some of the photos you sent into us from this spring here in southern oregon and northern california. be sure to share your photos with us on facebook and twitter! ? ? ? with the chase mobile app, jason wu could pay practically anyone, at any bank, all while putting on a runway show for new york fashion week. ? ? ? he could. or, he could make it even easier - and set up recurring payments to his neighbor. for cat sitting. (meow) whoa. you've groomed her, too. (cell phone vibrating) and now she's ready for the catwalk. life, lived jason's way. chase. make more of what's yours. so with the drought gone and a surplus of rainfall so far in the water year, how is our forecast looking for this summer? when it comes to temperatures ...if we look back at the last 10 years, seven of the last ten years have seen a warmer than average summer. the last six in a row have been above average. will we make it seven in a row? well let's talk about el nino first. we transitioned into a weak el nino last fall and has carried through spring. most long-range models show this weak el nino continuing through summer and possibly even into this next winter. correlations between el nino and oregon climate in the summer is weaker. that will make the forecast for summer tricky. noaa is showing summer will feature more above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below average rainfall. rainfall could be a bit more the summer weather we saw in years past based on similar conditions leading up to those summers. the years of 1969, 1980 and 2005 all had similar el nino conditions through winter and spring that we've seen this year. while these years don't all show a consistent signal, the 1969 year does match very close to what we've seen since last fall. based on that year and the others, what could we see this summer. it looks like the recent active weather we've seen could carry into june with wetter conditions, above average rainfall and also cooler than average temperatures. that's not to say this summer won't be hot. july, compared to average. there is a heightened risk for thunderstorm activity, mainly east this summer. in august, temperatures do look to trend back down a bit. bottom-line, based on temperatures will be a bit more uncertain, but it does look like this won't be the super dry summer we had last year. [d3]closing shot-all shot thanks for joining us for the stormwatch 12
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