Oregonians expected to receive $1.9 billion in 'kicker' rebates next year

With Oregon economists continuing to track a relatively rapid economic rebound after pandemic shutdowns, tax-payers should see rebates next year through the state's unique 'kicker' rule.

Posted: Aug 25, 2021 3:03 PM
Updated: Aug 25, 2021 3:05 PM

SALEM, Ore. — With Oregon economists continuing to track a relatively rapid economic rebound after pandemic shutdowns, tax-payers should see rebates next year through the state's unique "kicker" rule.

State economists delivered their quarterly Economic & Revenue Forecast to lawmakers on Wednesday, outlining a recovery from pandemic shutdowns and job losses that they expect to continue at a relatively rapid pace, though not without growing pains.

"The economic outlook remains bright. Strong household incomes, boosted considerably by federal aid during the pandemic, are the underlying driver. Consumers have no shortage of firepower if they want to and feel safe enough to spend," the Office of Economic Analysis wrote in its executive summary.

The report predicted that Oregon's labor market will regain all of its lost jobs by next summer, one quarter sooner than estimated in the last forecast.

"While these dynamics remain intact, the risks are weighted toward the downside," the economists continued. "Growth in a supply constrained economy is challenging. Firms are struggling with supply chains and a tight labor market. Wages are rising quickly to attract and retain workers. Prices are increasing as demand continues to outstrip supply. On top of this the current Delta wave of the pandemic complicates the immediate term outlook."

Unsurprisingly, the Office said that the biggest threat to economic recovery would be the return of COVID-19 shutdowns on sectors of the economy.

Though Oregon's tax collection deadline was delayed this year by the pandemic, the economists said that the 2021 tax season "turned out to be a very big one," with collections surging from personal income taxes, corporate income taxes, lottery sales, and the new Corporate Activity Tax.

As a result of the strong tax revenues, Oregon tax-payers are expected to receive a $1.9 billion personal income tax kicker credit for the 2021 tax year. The median taxpayer will receive a credit of about $420, and the average payment is estimated at $850.

Governor Kate Brown and a number of Oregon's state lawmakers released statements reacting to the revenue forecast on Wednesday, with most of them highlighting the state's apparently stable and recovering economy, looking ahead to investments in communities that are still struggling the most.

“Today’s revenue forecast is another sign that Oregon’s economy is healthy, strong, and on the path for a rapid recovery," Governor Brown said in a statement. "This is welcome news at a time that Oregonians continue to face immense challenges: from wildfire recovery to extreme drought to our worst surge of cases and hospitalizations during the COVID-19 pandemic."

Senate Republican Leader Fred Girod narrowed in on the kicker, an additional $850 million heading to K-12 schools, and a state budget with an ending balance of $699 million.

“It’s clear that Democrats raided $15 million from the Kicker for no good reason," Girod said. "Unprecedented deficit stimulus spending by the federal government and Oregonians stepping up to support businesses during the Governor’s shutdowns has given the state excess money.

“The legislature now has money to invest in COVID and wildfire response and recovery and preparing for upcoming unknown expenses in the next biennium. Most importantly, our kids need to be in school full-time to get caught up after a year of learning loss. This money can help our kids recover.”

Oregon Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 357526

Reported Deaths: 4284
CountyCasesDeaths
Multnomah55810707
Washington38782324
Marion36837455
Clackamas29779309
Lane27744302
Jackson23059310
Deschutes20336125
Umatilla14492150
Linn12911131
Douglas12118243
Josephine9384196
Yamhill8715113
Klamath8020119
Polk737381
Malheur563677
Benton549431
Coos503794
Columbia382644
Jefferson376052
Lincoln319939
Union319549
Crook291846
Wasco288841
Clatsop244328
Baker203529
Tillamook196932
Hood River192837
Morrow185023
Curry180625
Harney113927
Grant100013
Lake93912
Wallowa68612
Gilliam1544
Sherman1523
Wheeler1121
Unassigned00

California Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 4852216

Reported Deaths: 71350
CountyCasesDeaths
Los Angeles148510526549
Riverside3716705041
San Diego3678574183
San Bernardino3586775692
Orange3242885562
Sacramento1596362309
Kern1463481648
Fresno1463182094
Santa Clara1455431897
Alameda1206921400
San Joaquin1027761721
Ventura1010381167
Contra Costa1000181008
Stanislaus862991335
Tulare80375978
San Francisco54440649
San Mateo54168623
Monterey50911586
Solano46063341
Santa Barbara45223523
Merced42422581
Sonoma40997404
Placer39435429
Imperial36071766
Kings32938325
San Luis Obispo29973333
Madera23955285
Shasta23924352
Butte23818273
Santa Cruz21034221
Yolo20397248
Marin17706244
El Dorado17207149
Sutter13937175
Napa12898100
Yuba1011582
Tehama9534110
Humboldt9269109
Nevada916790
Mendocino766787
Lassen754347
San Benito744972
Tuolumne691790
Lake6631105
Amador547364
Siskiyou451246
Glenn438433
Calaveras391481
Del Norte358742
Colusa307618
Inyo214241
Mono16723
Plumas16607
Mariposa133916
Trinity88011
Modoc6895
Sierra1880
Unassigned1460
Alpine1050
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