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Oregon predicted to lose almost $10.5 billion in revenue over the next 5 years

Oregon economists delivered a bleak revenue forecast for the state over the next five years, predicting losses of almost $10.5 billion through 2025.

Posted: May 20, 2020 10:32 AM
Updated: May 20, 2020 11:05 AM

SALEM, Ore. — Oregon economists delivered a bleak revenue forecast for the state over the next five years, predicting losses of almost $10.5 billion through 2025. The state's latest economic outlook report came out on Wednesday, with lawmakers quickly voicing their reactions.

Unsurprisingly, the outsized impact on Oregon's revenue was attributed to the coronavirus pandemic and the state's response, which has resulted in mass lay-offs and record unemployment.

"Uncertainty abounds," the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis wrote in its report. "Our office is translating a public health crisis into an economic and revenue forecast."

The agency reported that the forecast is based on two major assumptions — that social distancing policies will begin lifting over the summer, and that the health crisis will wane by the end of 2021 due to an available treatment or vaccine.

Oregon officials predicted a "strong initial rebound" when COVID-19 restrictions are lifted, but said that the rally will be incomplete. Moreover, economists reported that the state's reliance on income taxes has made its revenue outlook "more volatile than in most states."

Governor Kate Brown issued a statement shortly after the revenue forecast came out, pointing toward the federal government for help in making up for the major revenue shortfalls.

“The latest forecast for state revenue makes it clear that we have tough choices ahead. We will need to tighten our belts. I am working with legislative leaders to preserve critical state services, find efficiencies, and prepare for potential budget cuts," Brown said.

“Make no mistake, the budget gap created by this pandemic is too large to bridge without additional Congressional action," she continued. "I am thankful for the work of our congressional delegation to secure federal funding for Oregon in the relief packages Congress has passed so far. But those funds only address a fraction of our current need, especially since we are not permitted to use the funding we have received so far to address state budget shortfalls."


RELATED: Senate Republican leader blasts Oregon Employment Department for 'bureaucratic failures'


Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle quickly added their voices to the response. For Senate Republican leader Fred Girod, R-Stayton, the blame lay with Brown's enduring coronavirus restrictions.

“Oregonians had a clearly defined goal from the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic: to flatten the curve. Governor Brown’s insistence to keep Oregon’s economy shutdown despite flattening the curve weeks ago, has cost Oregon billions of dollars of revenue, impacting generations to come," Girod said. "This revenue loss could have been mitigated if the Governor had been a leader and opened our state weeks ago.”

House Speaker Tina Kotek, D-Portland, struck a more hopeful note — referencing a rainy day fund that the state has worked to fill.

“Fortunately, our state is in a far better financial position than it was at the start of the Great Recession," Kotek said. "We have strong reserves that should be tapped early to avoid additional damage to our economy. I also believe increased bonding for public infrastructure will help to jumpstart the economy and put people back to work."

Oregon Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 394569

Reported Deaths: 5243
CountyCasesDeaths
Multnomah60720847
Washington42359405
Marion40153516
Clackamas33040387
Lane30428361
Jackson25105363
Deschutes23795189
Umatilla15144184
Linn14859183
Douglas13523293
Josephine10278247
Yamhill9840143
Klamath9112149
Polk8325102
Benton615338
Malheur593292
Coos5768109
Columbia438056
Jefferson424366
Lincoln365852
Crook343057
Union340756
Wasco318646
Clatsop263635
Baker221833
Tillamook218046
Hood River216537
Morrow197825
Curry193939
Harney121333
Grant109116
Lake105617
Wallowa76313
Sherman1933
Gilliam1854
Wheeler1141
Unassigned00

California Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 5107717

Reported Deaths: 74800
CountyCasesDeaths
Los Angeles153472027244
San Diego4091824350
Riverside3892365381
San Bernardino3762805983
Orange3352965756
Sacramento1690952452
Kern1582701828
Fresno1574692270
Santa Clara1528571928
Alameda1256281512
San Joaquin1080791835
Ventura1043091192
Contra Costa1042181056
Stanislaus919641429
Tulare867391100
San Francisco57141674
San Mateo56585631
Monterey52842626
Solano47828360
Santa Barbara47523555
Merced45309671
Sonoma43349414
Placer42458473
Imperial38932776
Kings35370367
San Luis Obispo31667360
Madera26388311
Shasta26221461
Butte25608318
Santa Cruz22402224
Yolo21722261
Marin18587249
El Dorado18448168
Sutter14646186
Napa13446106
Yuba1079891
Tehama10316131
Humboldt10294119
Nevada10112105
Mendocino864999
Lassen797656
San Benito787979
Tuolumne778491
Lake7057113
Amador580067
Siskiyou479657
Glenn458536
Calaveras445788
Del Norte377942
Colusa328321
Inyo257346
Plumas19577
Mono19034
Mariposa162218
Trinity100717
Modoc7936
Sierra2190
Unassigned1560
Alpine1080
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