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Oregon officials predict almost 1,200 new COVID-19 cases per day by mid-August

The Oregon Health Authority released a new coronavirus forecast on Friday, projecting a sharp increase in cases and hospitalizations through the middle of August.

Posted: Jul 30, 2021 3:25 PM
Updated: Jul 30, 2021 6:01 PM

PORTLAND, Ore. — With coronavirus case rates already regularly topping 1,000 per day this week, the Oregon Health Authority released new modeling on Friday that predicts cases will reach levels seen only last fall and winter by mid-August, accompanied by a sharp increase in hospitalizations.

The COVID-19 forecast posits that the effective reproduction rate of the virus — the number of secondary cases expected to result from a single case — was 1.58 through July 14, double the 0.74 found in mid-June.

If that transmission rate continues unimpeded over the next two weeks, daily cases would increase to 390 cases per 100,000 people, or about 1,170 cases and 95 new hospitalizations per day.

“Vaccine immunity is helping prevent further spread of COVID-19," the report concluded. Without vaccine immunity at its current level, the OHA project that the average rate of infection would be 3.18 over the same period.

Even if the Delta variant were to comprise 95 percent of new cases, the report finds, the adoption of protective measures such as wearing masks and avoiding large gatherings would curb the projected increase in hospitalizations and daily cases. Delta is currently believed to account for 80 percent of new Oregon cases.

“Today’s modeling report, although sobering, confirms the importance of protecting ourselves and others by getting vaccinated against COVID-19,” said state epidemiologist Dr. Dean Sidelinger. “By vaccinating more people, we can more quickly drive down hospitalizations and new cases.”

The OHA also said that it is investigating a COVID-19 outbreak linked to the Pendleton Whisky Music Fest that was held in Pendleton on July 10. Cases associated with the festival have been identified in Umatilla, Morrow, Union, and Wallow counties, as well as in Washington state.

Local, state, and Tribal public health officials are working to identify other cases linked to the festival. As of Friday, there were 58 cases among attendees.

"This outbreak is the first one of its size and scope to be traced to an outdoor entertainment event since the lifting of statewide COVID-19 prevention measures at the end of June," the OHA said.

The agency said that the Pendleton outbreak highlights the importance of actions that Oregonians can take to limit spread, such as wearing masks and getting vaccinated.

"In response to the resurgence of COVID-19 in Oregon, OHA recommended this week that all persons, regardless of their vaccination status, wear a mask indoors in public spaces," the agency continued. "OHA also encourages all Oregonians to consider masking if they plan to attend crowded outdoor events like fairs, sporting events, outdoor theater performances, rodeos or concerts, especially if they are at higher risk for complications from COVID-19 or live with individuals who are unvaccinated or at higher risk for complications from COVID-19."

OHA reported 1,076 new confirmed and presumptive cases of the virus on Friday, alongside three more deaths. Hospitalizations from COVID-19 reached 298 — perilously close to the 300-mark that state officials chose as a trigger for Extreme Risk status back in April.

While there is growing evidence that even vaccinated people can spread the Delta variant with relative ease, Oregon's latest data shows that the majority of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths occur among the unvaccinated. Throughout June, 92 percent of cases were among unvaccinated people, and 94 percent of deaths. A report on this data for July is expected in early August.

Oregon Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 357526

Reported Deaths: 4284
CountyCasesDeaths
Multnomah55810707
Washington38782324
Marion36837455
Clackamas29779309
Lane27744302
Jackson23059310
Deschutes20336125
Umatilla14492150
Linn12911131
Douglas12118243
Josephine9384196
Yamhill8715113
Klamath8020119
Polk737381
Malheur563677
Benton549431
Coos503794
Columbia382644
Jefferson376052
Lincoln319939
Union319549
Crook291846
Wasco288841
Clatsop244328
Baker203529
Tillamook196932
Hood River192837
Morrow185023
Curry180625
Harney113927
Grant100013
Lake93912
Wallowa68612
Gilliam1544
Sherman1523
Wheeler1121
Unassigned00

California Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 4848946

Reported Deaths: 71328
CountyCasesDeaths
Los Angeles148303126527
Riverside3716705041
San Diego3666614183
San Bernardino3586775692
Orange3242885562
Sacramento1596362309
Kern1463481648
Fresno1463182094
Santa Clara1455431897
Alameda1206921400
San Joaquin1027761721
Ventura1010381167
Contra Costa1000181008
Stanislaus862991335
Tulare80375978
San Francisco54440649
San Mateo54168623
Monterey50911586
Solano46063341
Santa Barbara45223523
Merced42422581
Sonoma40997404
Placer39435429
Imperial36071766
Kings32938325
San Luis Obispo29973333
Madera23955285
Shasta23924352
Butte23818273
Santa Cruz21034221
Yolo20397248
Marin17706244
El Dorado17207149
Sutter13937175
Napa12898100
Yuba1011582
Tehama9534110
Humboldt9269109
Nevada916790
Mendocino766787
Lassen754347
San Benito744972
Tuolumne691790
Lake6631105
Amador547364
Siskiyou451246
Glenn438433
Calaveras391481
Del Norte358742
Colusa307618
Inyo214241
Mono16723
Plumas16607
Mariposa133916
Trinity88011
Modoc6895
Sierra1880
Unassigned1460
Alpine1050
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