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OHA: Modeling shows 'considerable rise' in COVID-19 transmission rates

The Oregon Health Authority says that new viral modeling shows that coronavirus is spreading rapidly in Oregon.

Posted: Jun 26, 2020 12:14 PM
Updated: Jun 26, 2020 12:21 PM

PORTLAND, Ore. — A new viral modeling report suggests that coronavirus is spreading more rapidly in Oregon, according to a statement released by the Oregon Health Authority on Friday.

"We know that COVID-19 is in our communities," said Dean Sidelinger, MD, Oregon state health officer. "This latest model provides us with a sobering reminder that we all need to guard against continued spread, especially as we continue to reopen and the weather gets warmer."

According to the report, transmission rates increased 15 percent after May 15, and 10 percent more after May 22, based on hospitalization data in the state.

The state has seen some of its highest single-day spikes in COVID-19 cases over the past several weeks. Though at least some of the sustained increase in cases can be attributed to an expansion in testing and contact tracing, OHA officials have warned for weeks that the rate of transmission has risen as well.

OHA says that the latest model from the Institute for Disease Modeling is based on data gathered through June 18. It displays three projections — optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic models — that predict how case levels could proceed in the coming days. One scenario predicts that daily cases could rise as much as 20 percent.

"The modeling assumes that hospitalizations from COVID-19 remain stable and testing remains at its present level of approximately 4,000 a day," OHA said.


RELATED: Gov. Brown says some counties will require face coverings in public amid spike in COVID-19 cases


The optimistic scenario assumes that previous case increases are entirely due to higher testing, and predicts that case counts could remain stable at roughly 180 per day over the next month. OHA said that this is the "least likely" scenario, because it assumes that all new cases will be diagnosed. At present, only about one-third of new infections are traced to a known source.

The moderate model takes into account both increased transmission and expanded testing — predicting that daily infections could rise over the next month to more than 900 per day, with daily hospitalizations rising from eight to 27.

In the worst-case, "pessimistic" model, the rise in cases has been entirely due to increased transmission and not expanded testing. With these conditions, OHA said that infections could rise to more than 4,800 daily, with as many as 82 hospitalizations each day.

"Think hard about your choice of activities, especially as we get close to the Fourth of July holiday," Dr. Sidelinger said. "Ask yourself: how can I reduce my risk and the risk I might pose to people around me?"

OHA asked people to do what they can to suppress the virus: Staying six feet away from other people, wearing a mask, and avoiding large gatherings.

"If you are in a group setting — like a holiday barbecue — stay outside, keep your distance and use a face covering when you’re not eating. Wash your hands frequently and stay home if you’re sick," the agency said.

Oregon Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 43793

Reported Deaths: 673
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Multnomah9502166
Marion6024109
Washington599178
Umatilla343545
Clackamas326766
Lane246727
Malheur194938
Jackson17967
Deschutes118513
Yamhill101315
Linn84515
Polk66815
Jefferson60710
Morrow5517
Lincoln51813
Union4842
Benton4636
Klamath4223
Douglas3688
Wasco34916
Hood River2841
Columbia2711
Josephine2703
Coos2601
Clatsop2480
Baker1403
Crook1132
Tillamook740
Curry581
Wallowa492
Lake430
Harney350
Sherman200
Grant120
Gilliam110
Wheeler10
Unassigned00

California Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 923648

Reported Deaths: 17559
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Los Angeles3050707044
Riverside675521306
San Bernardino641311073
Orange594421468
San Diego55898885
Kern34114420
Fresno31195439
Sacramento25882499
Santa Clara24665404
Alameda23636463
San Joaquin21988492
Contra Costa18877243
Stanislaus17814400
Tulare17730291
Ventura14409166
Imperial13023338
San Francisco12277145
Monterey1153892
San Mateo11278159
Santa Barbara9886126
Sonoma9601136
Merced9588155
Kings848683
Solano758676
Marin7107127
Madera506676
Placer429059
San Luis Obispo424032
Yolo325060
Butte313453
Santa Cruz284825
Shasta199931
Napa199816
Sutter188912
San Benito144915
El Dorado13684
Yuba133810
Mendocino115421
Tehama9219
Lassen7711
Lake70216
Glenn6793
Nevada6328
Humboldt56910
Colusa5536
Calaveras34721
Amador33716
Tuolumne2855
Inyo24015
Siskiyou2140
Mono1822
Del Norte1801
Mariposa812
Plumas760
Modoc450
Trinity280
Sierra60
Alpine40
Unassigned00
Medford
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