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OHA: Modeling shows 'considerable rise' in COVID-19 transmission rates

The Oregon Health Authority says that new viral modeling shows that coronavirus is spreading rapidly in Oregon.

Posted: Jun 26, 2020 12:14 PM
Updated: Jun 26, 2020 12:21 PM

PORTLAND, Ore. — A new viral modeling report suggests that coronavirus is spreading more rapidly in Oregon, according to a statement released by the Oregon Health Authority on Friday.

"We know that COVID-19 is in our communities," said Dean Sidelinger, MD, Oregon state health officer. "This latest model provides us with a sobering reminder that we all need to guard against continued spread, especially as we continue to reopen and the weather gets warmer."

According to the report, transmission rates increased 15 percent after May 15, and 10 percent more after May 22, based on hospitalization data in the state.

The state has seen some of its highest single-day spikes in COVID-19 cases over the past several weeks. Though at least some of the sustained increase in cases can be attributed to an expansion in testing and contact tracing, OHA officials have warned for weeks that the rate of transmission has risen as well.

OHA says that the latest model from the Institute for Disease Modeling is based on data gathered through June 18. It displays three projections — optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic models — that predict how case levels could proceed in the coming days. One scenario predicts that daily cases could rise as much as 20 percent.

"The modeling assumes that hospitalizations from COVID-19 remain stable and testing remains at its present level of approximately 4,000 a day," OHA said.


RELATED: Gov. Brown says some counties will require face coverings in public amid spike in COVID-19 cases


The optimistic scenario assumes that previous case increases are entirely due to higher testing, and predicts that case counts could remain stable at roughly 180 per day over the next month. OHA said that this is the "least likely" scenario, because it assumes that all new cases will be diagnosed. At present, only about one-third of new infections are traced to a known source.

The moderate model takes into account both increased transmission and expanded testing — predicting that daily infections could rise over the next month to more than 900 per day, with daily hospitalizations rising from eight to 27.

In the worst-case, "pessimistic" model, the rise in cases has been entirely due to increased transmission and not expanded testing. With these conditions, OHA said that infections could rise to more than 4,800 daily, with as many as 82 hospitalizations each day.

"Think hard about your choice of activities, especially as we get close to the Fourth of July holiday," Dr. Sidelinger said. "Ask yourself: how can I reduce my risk and the risk I might pose to people around me?"

OHA asked people to do what they can to suppress the virus: Staying six feet away from other people, wearing a mask, and avoiding large gatherings.

"If you are in a group setting — like a holiday barbecue — stay outside, keep your distance and use a face covering when you’re not eating. Wash your hands frequently and stay home if you’re sick," the agency said.

Oregon Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 10230

Reported Deaths: 215
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Multnomah248869
Marion164848
Washington158620
Clackamas84525
Umatilla7576
Union3561
Lincoln3464
Deschutes2190
Lane2183
Malheur2061
Polk15912
Linn1579
Jackson1490
Yamhill1398
Jefferson1330
Klamath1301
Morrow1021
Benton945
Hood River930
Wasco911
Josephine551
Clatsop510
Douglas500
Coos420
Columbia390
Lake210
Tillamook140
Crook130
Wallowa100
Curry80
Baker50
Sherman30
Gilliam10
Grant10
Harney10
Unassigned00
Wheeler00

California Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 264681

Reported Deaths: 6373
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Los Angeles1150243487
Riverside19450479
Orange16854366
San Diego16726387
San Bernardino14922269
Imperial7039114
Alameda6855140
Fresno611077
Santa Clara5273161
Kern524582
Tulare4627136
San Joaquin447455
Sacramento423669
San Francisco377650
Contra Costa366281
San Mateo3536108
Santa Barbara326129
Ventura324047
Marin271921
Stanislaus266045
Kings263432
Monterey206415
Solano147625
Sonoma135911
Merced127211
Placer87711
San Luis Obispo7012
Yolo67726
Madera5785
Santa Cruz4573
Napa3764
San Benito2732
Sutter2523
Lassen2420
El Dorado2260
Butte2063
Shasta1545
Humboldt1444
Nevada1291
Glenn1220
Yuba1061
Tehama881
Lake871
Mendocino850
Colusa700
Del Norte581
Calaveras530
Mono451
Tuolumne430
Inyo331
Amador310
Siskiyou310
Mariposa271
Plumas110
Alpine20
Trinity20
Sierra10
Unassigned00
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