OHA: Modeling shows 'considerable rise' in COVID-19 transmission rates

The Oregon Health Authority says that new viral modeling shows that coronavirus is spreading rapidly in Oregon.

Posted: Jun 26, 2020 12:14 PM
Updated: Jun 26, 2020 12:21 PM

PORTLAND, Ore. — A new viral modeling report suggests that coronavirus is spreading more rapidly in Oregon, according to a statement released by the Oregon Health Authority on Friday.

"We know that COVID-19 is in our communities," said Dean Sidelinger, MD, Oregon state health officer. "This latest model provides us with a sobering reminder that we all need to guard against continued spread, especially as we continue to reopen and the weather gets warmer."

According to the report, transmission rates increased 15 percent after May 15, and 10 percent more after May 22, based on hospitalization data in the state.

The state has seen some of its highest single-day spikes in COVID-19 cases over the past several weeks. Though at least some of the sustained increase in cases can be attributed to an expansion in testing and contact tracing, OHA officials have warned for weeks that the rate of transmission has risen as well.

OHA says that the latest model from the Institute for Disease Modeling is based on data gathered through June 18. It displays three projections — optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic models — that predict how case levels could proceed in the coming days. One scenario predicts that daily cases could rise as much as 20 percent.

"The modeling assumes that hospitalizations from COVID-19 remain stable and testing remains at its present level of approximately 4,000 a day," OHA said.


RELATED: Gov. Brown says some counties will require face coverings in public amid spike in COVID-19 cases


The optimistic scenario assumes that previous case increases are entirely due to higher testing, and predicts that case counts could remain stable at roughly 180 per day over the next month. OHA said that this is the "least likely" scenario, because it assumes that all new cases will be diagnosed. At present, only about one-third of new infections are traced to a known source.

The moderate model takes into account both increased transmission and expanded testing — predicting that daily infections could rise over the next month to more than 900 per day, with daily hospitalizations rising from eight to 27.

In the worst-case, "pessimistic" model, the rise in cases has been entirely due to increased transmission and not expanded testing. With these conditions, OHA said that infections could rise to more than 4,800 daily, with as many as 82 hospitalizations each day.

"Think hard about your choice of activities, especially as we get close to the Fourth of July holiday," Dr. Sidelinger said. "Ask yourself: how can I reduce my risk and the risk I might pose to people around me?"

OHA asked people to do what they can to suppress the virus: Staying six feet away from other people, wearing a mask, and avoiding large gatherings.

"If you are in a group setting — like a holiday barbecue — stay outside, keep your distance and use a face covering when you’re not eating. Wash your hands frequently and stay home if you’re sick," the agency said.

Oregon Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 132412

Reported Deaths: 1799
CountyCasesDeaths
Multnomah28237458
Washington18512171
Marion16085238
Clackamas11577138
Lane8219108
Jackson686284
Umatilla670968
Deschutes490736
Yamhill316245
Malheur312452
Linn310246
Klamath242238
Polk241340
Josephine170633
Jefferson168725
Benton168414
Douglas166643
Union110416
Wasco106323
Columbia103318
Lincoln98517
Hood River94821
Coos93315
Morrow92710
Clatsop6695
Crook60410
Baker5665
Tillamook3622
Curry3185
Lake2295
Grant2131
Harney1734
Wallowa963
Gilliam481
Sherman470
Wheeler201
Unassigned00

California Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 2955323

Reported Deaths: 33342
CountyCasesDeaths
Los Angeles100392313741
San Bernardino2482851560
Riverside2352352517
San Diego2098972065
Orange2093652320
Santa Clara914661060
Kern83547558
Sacramento802791080
Fresno79950932
Alameda65679757
Ventura59061412
San Joaquin56484748
Contra Costa50627430
Stanislaus41925739
Tulare40176501
Monterey34959249
San Mateo31291294
San Francisco28574254
Imperial24944463
Solano24654105
Santa Barbara23538228
Merced23492296
Sonoma23204234
Kings18661110
Placer16761173
San Luis Obispo15129128
Madera12883130
Santa Cruz11776113
Marin11345153
Yolo10240131
Shasta9594117
Butte9233121
El Dorado751544
Sutter748477
Napa723139
Lassen509413
San Benito485043
Yuba481827
Tehama397142
Tuolumne330438
Nevada309973
Mendocino307631
Amador295329
Lake243428
Humboldt226324
Glenn182419
Colusa16919
Calaveras153823
Siskiyou140813
Mono10834
Inyo92429
Del Norte8472
Plumas5735
Modoc3783
Mariposa3434
Trinity3024
Alpine730
Sierra700
Unassigned00
Medford
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