OHA: Modeling shows 'considerable rise' in COVID-19 transmission rates

The Oregon Health Authority says that new viral modeling shows that coronavirus is spreading rapidly in Oregon.

Posted: Jun 26, 2020 12:14 PM
Updated: Jun 26, 2020 12:21 PM

PORTLAND, Ore. — A new viral modeling report suggests that coronavirus is spreading more rapidly in Oregon, according to a statement released by the Oregon Health Authority on Friday.

"We know that COVID-19 is in our communities," said Dean Sidelinger, MD, Oregon state health officer. "This latest model provides us with a sobering reminder that we all need to guard against continued spread, especially as we continue to reopen and the weather gets warmer."

According to the report, transmission rates increased 15 percent after May 15, and 10 percent more after May 22, based on hospitalization data in the state.

The state has seen some of its highest single-day spikes in COVID-19 cases over the past several weeks. Though at least some of the sustained increase in cases can be attributed to an expansion in testing and contact tracing, OHA officials have warned for weeks that the rate of transmission has risen as well.

OHA says that the latest model from the Institute for Disease Modeling is based on data gathered through June 18. It displays three projections — optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic models — that predict how case levels could proceed in the coming days. One scenario predicts that daily cases could rise as much as 20 percent.

"The modeling assumes that hospitalizations from COVID-19 remain stable and testing remains at its present level of approximately 4,000 a day," OHA said.


RELATED: Gov. Brown says some counties will require face coverings in public amid spike in COVID-19 cases


The optimistic scenario assumes that previous case increases are entirely due to higher testing, and predicts that case counts could remain stable at roughly 180 per day over the next month. OHA said that this is the "least likely" scenario, because it assumes that all new cases will be diagnosed. At present, only about one-third of new infections are traced to a known source.

The moderate model takes into account both increased transmission and expanded testing — predicting that daily infections could rise over the next month to more than 900 per day, with daily hospitalizations rising from eight to 27.

In the worst-case, "pessimistic" model, the rise in cases has been entirely due to increased transmission and not expanded testing. With these conditions, OHA said that infections could rise to more than 4,800 daily, with as many as 82 hospitalizations each day.

"Think hard about your choice of activities, especially as we get close to the Fourth of July holiday," Dr. Sidelinger said. "Ask yourself: how can I reduce my risk and the risk I might pose to people around me?"

OHA asked people to do what they can to suppress the virus: Staying six feet away from other people, wearing a mask, and avoiding large gatherings.

"If you are in a group setting — like a holiday barbecue — stay outside, keep your distance and use a face covering when you’re not eating. Wash your hands frequently and stay home if you’re sick," the agency said.

Oregon Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 356061

Reported Deaths: 4275
CountyCasesDeaths
Multnomah55695704
Washington38673322
Marion36719454
Clackamas29660309
Lane27624302
Jackson22982310
Deschutes20211125
Umatilla14451150
Linn12780130
Douglas12065243
Josephine9349196
Yamhill8674113
Klamath7965118
Polk733681
Malheur561776
Benton546531
Coos501294
Columbia379744
Jefferson372352
Union318449
Lincoln318039
Crook287546
Wasco287441
Clatsop243329
Baker202529
Tillamook196432
Hood River192137
Morrow184423
Curry180025
Harney113726
Grant100013
Lake92412
Wallowa68612
Gilliam1544
Sherman1503
Wheeler1121
Unassigned00

California Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 4842472

Reported Deaths: 71202
CountyCasesDeaths
Los Angeles148181426506
Riverside3712935030
San Diego3660564183
San Bernardino3582135663
Orange3241845550
Sacramento1593332308
Kern1459621644
Fresno1458772084
Santa Clara1453911896
Alameda1205301400
San Joaquin1025821721
Ventura1009841166
Contra Costa998841008
Stanislaus860701331
Tulare80203967
San Francisco54375646
San Mateo54112622
Monterey50885587
Solano46021341
Santa Barbara45160523
Merced42299581
Sonoma40925402
Placer39342425
Imperial35999766
Kings32801322
San Luis Obispo29945332
Madera23876285
Shasta23851352
Butte23738270
Santa Cruz21018220
Yolo20353248
Marin17692244
El Dorado17169149
Sutter13913175
Napa12882100
Yuba1008582
Tehama9510110
Humboldt9243108
Nevada914290
Mendocino763687
Lassen754347
San Benito744472
Tuolumne688089
Lake6605104
Amador544064
Siskiyou450546
Glenn436733
Calaveras389381
Del Norte358342
Colusa307218
Inyo211140
Mono16703
Plumas16417
Mariposa133416
Trinity87711
Modoc6865
Sierra1880
Unassigned1820
Alpine1030
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