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Coronavirus infections could remain level if social distancing continues

Oregon's 'aggressive' social distancing has prevented as many as 18,000 cases of COVID-19, according to new projections.

Posted: Apr 11, 2020 10:08 PM
Updated: Apr 11, 2020 10:08 PM

PORTLAND, Ore. — Social distancing is working. According to new projections released by the Oregon COVID-19 Joint Information Center, the "aggressive" social distancing within Oregon has prevented nearly 18,000 coronavirus cases.

The researchers said that were it not for social distancing, "[Oregon] health care systems would likely have become overburdened by late April in the absence of these sustained interventions to keep the number of infections under control.”

This announcement doesn't mean, however, that social distancing can stop. Researchers say that the current restrictions need to continue into May in order to prevent a surge.

Right now, most of Oregon's hospitals are operating below capacity but could become overwhelmed if the current measures were loosened. The report stated that "under current social distancing conditions, the total cumulative infections with COVID-19 in Oregon on May 18 would be fewer than 20,000." It goes on to say that if social distancing measures were relaxed, the number of cases could jump to 60,000 in that same timeframe.

The peak of active infections has not happened in Oregon yet, according to the Oregon COVID-19 JIC. That is expected around mid-May. As of Saturday, the projections have the peak to be around 2,000 cases a day in mid-May and then those numbers slowly lowering. But, again, if social distancing measures were relaxed, that number could jump to over 17,000 cases a day.

“Staying at home and maintaining physical distancing is difficult and has had serious economic impacts that have affected many people, but the data continue to show that Oregonians are saving lives by staying home," said Dr. Dean Sideliner, state health officer at Oregon Health Authority.

The model numbers were put together by the Institute for Disease Modeling in Washington.

Oregon Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 32820

Reported Deaths: 543
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Multnomah7184138
Marion468394
Washington451960
Umatilla297641
Clackamas240861
Malheur162723
Lane121017
Jackson11485
Deschutes84012
Yamhill75713
Jefferson5348
Polk53015
Linn52213
Morrow4996
Lincoln48213
Union4462
Benton3106
Wasco2923
Klamath2802
Hood River2510
Douglas2324
Clatsop2120
Josephine1982
Columbia1711
Coos1570
Baker942
Crook621
Tillamook530
Lake330
Curry310
Wallowa311
Sherman180
Harney120
Grant100
Gilliam80
Unassigned00
Wheeler00

California Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 809890

Reported Deaths: 15606
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Los Angeles2678016514
Riverside581781189
San Bernardino54478925
Orange533151216
San Diego46610776
Kern31947369
Fresno28336382
Sacramento22269406
Alameda21189406
Santa Clara21153312
San Joaquin20194441
Contra Costa16572205
Stanislaus16452354
Tulare15970263
Ventura12729150
Imperial11835317
San Francisco11143101
Monterey988471
San Mateo9843150
Santa Barbara9061113
Merced8872142
Kings756980
Sonoma7412122
Marin6716118
Solano630963
Madera448165
Placer357745
San Luis Obispo354629
Butte282744
Yolo280355
Santa Cruz23589
Sutter170511
Napa168113
San Benito134511
Yuba11537
El Dorado11274
Mendocino93118
Shasta85617
Lassen7400
Glenn5783
Tehama5605
Lake54911
Nevada5347
Colusa5296
Humboldt5017
Calaveras31714
Amador29616
Tuolumne2274
Inyo18715
Mono1652
Siskiyou1650
Del Norte1391
Mariposa752
Plumas500
Modoc270
Trinity160
Sierra60
Alpine20
Unassigned00
Medford
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