CNN Poll: In final days, Democrats maintain advantage

On the eve of the...

Posted: Nov 5, 2018 4:55 PM
Updated: Nov 5, 2018 4:55 PM

On the eve of the midterm elections, Democrats continue to hold a double-digit lead over Republicans in a generic congressional ballot among likely voters, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS. The party's 55% to 42% advantage in the new poll mirrors their lead in early October and is about the same as the 10-point edge they held just after Labor Day.

That's a slimmer edge than the party held in CNN's final poll before the 2006 midterm elections and similar to the Republicans' 10-point advantage just before the 2010 midterms.

Donald Trump

Education

Education systems and institutions

Elections (by type)

Elections and campaigns

Government and public administration

Government bodies and offices

Government organizations - US

Higher education

Midterm elections

Political Figures - US

Political organizations

Politics

US Congress

US Democratic Party

US federal government

US political parties

US Republican Party

Voters and voting

White House

RELATED: Full poll results

Democrats benefit from a massive gender gap that has persisted throughout the fall (women favor Democrats 62% to 35%, while men are about evenly divided, 49% back the Republican, while 48% support the Democrat in their district), a wide lead among political independents (53% for the Democrat to 39% for the Republican), and strong support from black and Latino voters (88% of black voters and 66% of Latino voters favor the Democrats).

The gender gap cuts across lines of race and education, with non-white women (79% favor Democrats) and white women with college degrees (68% back the Democrat) breaking most heavily for the Democrats, while white men (57% Republican) and particularly white men without college degrees (65% back the Republican) are most deeply behind the GOP.

About 7 in 10 likely voters say that when they cast a ballot on Tuesday, they'll be sending a message about President Donald Trump, and more often than not, the message those voters want to send is one of opposition.

Overall, 42% of likely voters say their vote will be to express opposition to the president, while 28% say that it'll be to support him.

Another 28% say their vote isn't about the president. That level of opposition is similar to the way likely voters felt just ahead of the 2006 election, when 41% said they were voting to oppose then-President George W. Bush. Fewer voters in that year, just 16%, said they were turning out to support the president.

Trump's approval rating in the poll stands at 39% overall, with 55% disapproving, slightly worse than in early October, when 41% approved of his performance and 52% disapproved.

That is the worst pre-election approval rating for any president approaching their first midterm election in polling dating back to Eisenhower.

Among likely voters, a majority, 52% say they strongly disapprove of the way the president is handling his job, 35% say they strongly approve of his work as President, and just 11% of those likely to vote on Tuesday say they don't have strong views on Trump.

With the election just days away as the poll was conducted, enthusiasm was up among both parties' voters, but Democrats advantage in enthusiasm narrowed to just 4 points: 68% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents were enthusiastic about voting, while 64% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents said the same.

A majority of likely voters (52%) say they consider health care extremely important to their vote for Congress on Tuesday, with immigration and Trump closely behind at 49% each. Just behind that, 47% each say the economy, corruption and gun policy are extremely important to their vote.

But voters' issue priorities are sharply divided by party. Among Democrats, 71% call health care extremely important. That stands at 37% among Republicans. Almost two-thirds of Republicans (64%) say immigration is extremely important to them, while that dips twenty points to 44% among Democrats. And while 60% of Republicans call the economy extremely important, just 39% of Democrats agree.

Most Democrats consider the Russia investigation a critical part of their vote (53% say it's extremely important), but just 8% of Republicans say the same. The one issue they both agree on: Trump. Majorities in both parties say he's extremely important to their vote (55% of Republicans, 53% of Democrats).

About half of likely voters say that if Democrats win control of Congress, the country would be better off (48%), while about a third say it'll be worse off (35%).

Most Americans (56%) think it's likely that a foreign government will interfere with the US elections this fall, and 74% think that if it happens, it would be a crisis or a major problem. Worries about foreign interference are more widespread among Democrats, 74% of whom think it's likely to happen and 90% of whom consider it a major problem.

Among Republicans, just 33% think such interference is likely and 57% consider it a major problem or more.

The poll also finds 8 in 10 Americans think the country is more deeply divided this year on major issues than it has been in the past several years. That's slightly lower than the 85% who felt that way just after Trump's election in 2016.

As many as 74% say that the recent tone of American politics is encouraging violence among some people. That's about the same as said so in a CBS News poll conducted shortly after a Republican member of Congress was shot during a June 2017 congressional baseball practice for a charity event.

The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS from November 1 through 3 among a random national sample of 1,518 adults reached on landlines or cellphones by a live interviewer. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, for the subset of 1,151 likely voters, it is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Oregon Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 132412

Reported Deaths: 1799
CountyCasesDeaths
Multnomah28237458
Washington18512171
Marion16085238
Clackamas11577138
Lane8219108
Jackson686284
Umatilla670968
Deschutes490736
Yamhill316245
Malheur312452
Linn310246
Klamath242238
Polk241340
Josephine170633
Jefferson168725
Benton168414
Douglas166643
Union110416
Wasco106323
Columbia103318
Lincoln98517
Hood River94821
Coos93315
Morrow92710
Clatsop6695
Crook60410
Baker5665
Tillamook3622
Curry3185
Lake2295
Grant2131
Harney1734
Wallowa963
Gilliam481
Sherman470
Wheeler201
Unassigned00

California Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 2955323

Reported Deaths: 33342
CountyCasesDeaths
Los Angeles100392313741
San Bernardino2482851560
Riverside2352352517
San Diego2098972065
Orange2093652320
Santa Clara914661060
Kern83547558
Sacramento802791080
Fresno79950932
Alameda65679757
Ventura59061412
San Joaquin56484748
Contra Costa50627430
Stanislaus41925739
Tulare40176501
Monterey34959249
San Mateo31291294
San Francisco28574254
Imperial24944463
Solano24654105
Santa Barbara23538228
Merced23492296
Sonoma23204234
Kings18661110
Placer16761173
San Luis Obispo15129128
Madera12883130
Santa Cruz11776113
Marin11345153
Yolo10240131
Shasta9594117
Butte9233121
El Dorado751544
Sutter748477
Napa723139
Lassen509413
San Benito485043
Yuba481827
Tehama397142
Tuolumne330438
Nevada309973
Mendocino307631
Amador295329
Lake243428
Humboldt226324
Glenn182419
Colusa16919
Calaveras153823
Siskiyou140813
Mono10834
Inyo92429
Del Norte8472
Plumas5735
Modoc3783
Mariposa3434
Trinity3024
Alpine730
Sierra700
Unassigned00
Medford
Cloudy
41° wxIcon
Hi: 53° Lo: 37°
Feels Like: 41°
Brookings
Partly Cloudy
65° wxIcon
Hi: 60° Lo: 45°
Feels Like: 65°
Medford
Partly Cloudy
41° wxIcon
Hi: 41° Lo: 29°
Feels Like: 41°
Medford
Cloudy
41° wxIcon
Hi: 53° Lo: 40°
Feels Like: 41°
Klamath Falls
Partly Cloudy
32° wxIcon
Hi: 46° Lo: 27°
Feels Like: 32°
Mostly cloudy Sunday
KDRV Radar
KDRV Fire Danger
KDRV Weather Cam

Community Events

Latest Video

Image

Medford School District Plans for the Future of the COVID-19 Vaccine

Image

Astronomers discover "Super Earth"

Image

Super Planet discovered in Milkway Galaxy

Image

OREGON REPORTS LARGE AMOUNT OF NEW CASES 1/16/21

Image

Oregon reports 41 new deaths, 1,173 cases, only 1 death away from 1,800 deaths

Image

5 SHOW

Image

GOV BROWN UPSET CLIP

Image

Saturday, January 16 evening weather

Image

MIDDAY 12/24/20

Image

Day After Capitol Riots