4 scary numbers for Republicans in 2018

Over the weekend at Camp David, Republican congressional leaders huddled with President Donald Trump to talk about, a...

Posted: Jan 9, 2018 9:00 AM
Updated: Jan 9, 2018 9:00 AM

Over the weekend at Camp David, Republican congressional leaders huddled with President Donald Trump to talk about, among other things, the 2018 election.

It was a "constructive" discussion that was "grounded in reality," according to a source familiar with the talks, report my colleagues Phil Mattingly, Jeff Zeleny and David Wright.

The reality -- and I'm not sure how much of this was accurately conveyed to Trump -- is that every leading indicator points to a wave headed Republicans' way that could well deliver control of the House to Democrats in 2019.

Here are four numbers that tell the story (with a special thank you to super-lobbyist Bruce Mehlman's always terrific quarterly PowerPoint):

40: That's the average -- AVERAGE -- seat loss for the president's party in midterm election since 1962 when the president's approval rating is under 50%. Trump's approval rating in the Gallup weekly tracking poll released Monday afternoon? 37%. 12: That's the average Democratic lead in the generic congressional ballot as of late December. ("If the election were today, would you vote for a Republican or a Democrat to represent you?") That's worrisome when you compare it to where the generic stood in other major wave elections. At this time in the 2014 election, a very good election for Republicans, Democrats had a nearly 2 point edge on the generic ballot. In 2006, the midterm election where Democrats won back control of Congress, the party's generic ballot edge was only 10 points. 3: There have only been three midterm elections -- 1934, 1998 and 2002 -- in the last century where the president's party didn't lose House seats. In all three of those elections there were major extenuating circumstances -- Great Depression, Clinton impeachment and September 11 terrorist attacks -- that upset the historical trend. Short of that sort of cataclysm, however, the president's party usually gets walloped. 0: Exactly none of the past five presidents have seen their job approval numbers go up in the year before their first midterm election. (Shout out to Republican pollster Lance Tarrance for this data point!). President Obama went from +13 in approval in 2009 to +1 in 2010. Ronald Reagan went from +18 in 1981 to -3 in 1982. -You get the idea. Barring a massive unforeseen event, it's very unlikely Trump's approval rating gets much better between now and November.

The Point: Yes, there are exceptions to every political rule. And Trump proved he could buck conventional wisdom by winning in 2016. But Trump's current approval numbers and the massive weight of electoral history suggest that Republicans are in very deep trouble heading into the 2018 midterm. Very deep trouble.

Read Monday's full edition of The Point newsletter.

Oregon Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 155597

Reported Deaths: 2208
CountyCasesDeaths
Multnomah31877528
Washington21211212
Marion18468285
Clackamas13380175
Lane10258126
Jackson8395112
Umatilla765982
Deschutes595259
Yamhill378364
Linn359056
Malheur335158
Polk306442
Klamath279155
Douglas247454
Benton234416
Josephine234050
Jefferson195828
Coos149119
Union128419
Columbia126521
Wasco122126
Lincoln113220
Hood River106929
Morrow104914
Clatsop7756
Crook77518
Baker6567
Curry4296
Tillamook4142
Lake3766
Harney2736
Grant2231
Wallowa1424
Gilliam531
Sherman530
Wheeler221
Unassigned00

California Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 3566914

Reported Deaths: 52158
CountyCasesDeaths
Los Angeles119192321435
Riverside2894503767
San Bernardino2866072874
Orange2612203917
San Diego2600913284
Santa Clara1106211777
Kern102627827
Fresno953931443
Sacramento932811472
Alameda806681242
Ventura77623844
San Joaquin665691101
Contra Costa62248681
Stanislaus56132946
Tulare47784758
Monterey42138328
San Mateo38998515
San Francisco34260412
Santa Barbara31805411
Solano30024164
Merced28915397
Sonoma28141298
Imperial26903591
Kings21955218
Placer19763232
San Luis Obispo19612227
Madera15467209
Santa Cruz14588183
Marin13136197
Yolo12834185
Shasta10985174
Butte10962160
El Dorado9095100
Napa903869
Sutter884597
San Benito576759
Yuba573337
Lassen560119
Tehama508152
Nevada396074
Tuolumne394659
Mendocino379643
Amador346341
Humboldt318033
Lake315641
Glenn222523
Colusa212813
Calaveras190547
Siskiyou174014
Inyo128737
Mono12114
Del Norte9875
Plumas6536
Modoc4524
Mariposa3957
Trinity3675
Sierra990
Alpine810
Unassigned00
Medford
Clear
47° wxIcon
Hi: 63° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 47°
Brookings
Clear
43° wxIcon
Hi: 57° Lo: 37°
Feels Like: 43°
Medford
Clear
47° wxIcon
Hi: 39° Lo: 18°
Feels Like: 47°
Medford
Partly Cloudy
47° wxIcon
Hi: 65° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 47°
Klamath Falls
Clear
30° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 23°
Feels Like: 25°
Very mild start to March
KDRV Radar
KDRV Fire Danger
KDRV Weather Cam

Community Events