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Winter Weather Outlook

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According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, above normal precipitation will fall during December, January and February across the Eastern United States, while the West. They’re still forecasting drier than normal across Southern Oregon and really dry across California, as a result of a condition that we call El Nino.  They were forecasting that the conditions in the water to turn from…”cooler than normal to warmer than normal”.  But, frankly, that hasn’t happened.  So, this forecast; sort of based on that would give us above normal temperatures across a good “chunk” of the country, with colder than normal temperatures in the Upper Midwest, the Great Lakes and also over Florida.  Equal Chances elsewhere.

But, Dan has some information that is a little bit different.  He  shows you that the water is still very warm.   This is the Western Pacific, Australia, New Guinea, over towards the Philippines’…very, very warm water.  And that water has to change in order for conditions to go from La Nina to El Nino, and that’s not happening. We have cold pockets and neutral water conditions that are prevalent across the Equator…and this would tend to “consolidate the jet stream. We have been hit so hard the last couple of days with flooding, heavy rains, and winds that were higher than Hurricane Force.  Well, this kind of situation, with the “Pineapple Connection” , and these frequent storms coming in…a higher probability this winter; because of the way the situation is in the neutral condition.

The Columbus Day storm of 1962, happened during a neutral weather situation, a neutral water condition.  There will be periods where it will be dry.  And, when it is we will see some fog, but, most of the time a progressive winter pattern where storms come in and go…and we don’t stay stagnant with one dry long winter, or one wet winter with…it will be just kind of one wet period and a dry period.

Dan looked at 13 dry July, August, September’s, wet October’s…using a different forecasting technique.  We call it, “Using climate history”.  When he did that he found out that Crater Lake has a 62% chance of being colder than normal…also, a 69 percent chance for some wetter than normal conditions.

He did the same thing for the Rogue Valley.   And, when we do that…possibly because of the “shadowing effect” of a southwest wind flow…those southwesterlies and the shadowing in the Rogue Valley…the forecasting technique of using 13 years of using dry August and September and weather in October getting very wet.  We tend to be about normal on temperatures, kind of normal on precipitation.  Maybe a little bit below normal.  And that is the forecasting technique using climatology.

Based on this information, higher than normal chance for, “additionally”, one to two strong storms during the wintertime.   We’ve already had the one…more are coming.  Rogue Valley, near normal or slightly warmer than normal temperatures.  And, for us, we also anticipate the mountains will see colder than normal temperatures over the winter season.  And, finally, we look at the mountainous areas and the valleys and we find some dry periods.  There may be some periods of dense fog.  And also for us, we plan that there will be Rogue Valley near or slightly drier than usual under these circumstances.

So, the mountains getting the snow…that’s good news…we don’t need it as much in the valleys, its better to get it in the mountains.  And, snowier than normal conditions anticipated for the mountains…and that is exactly what we need.