A change in the weather pattern is here and it is going to be active. Thunderstorms are once again in the forecast, but the difference is that they will affect all areas in the watch area. Yes, even the coast and west side valleys will see scattered showers. An upper level low off the coast of Northern California, with it’s counter-clockwise flow is pushing in moisture and instability. Disturbances in this system, along with daytime heating will lead to an increase in thunderstorm activity. Usually, storms do not posses enough energy to make it over the mountain ranges that surround the valleys and shade the coast. However, models are indicating that the storms Sunday-Wednesday will have what it takes.
Saturday was a precursor for the activity that is to come. Some activity was seen to the east in the Klamath Basin. Numerous small cells were created and even some lightning strike (although isolated) were recorded. Instability seems to be much greater in the days to come, and that along with high amounts of moisture in the atmosphere combine to make strong thunderstorms. A mid-level dry layer, below the thunderstorms will act as a barrier for rain and create a virga-dry lightning situation. Most of the rain falling from the storms will evaporate before ever reaching the ground and therefore, any lightning strikes that do occur will do so on dry ground. Dry fuels and soil are what we have in our drought-stricken region, and therefore, more fires are expected to start up.
Therefore, the NWS has issued a RED FLAG WARNING to go into effect from Sunday morning until Tuesday at 11 p.m. This warning is for ALL counties in the watch area, including Coos, Douglas, Curry, Josephine, and Jackson. The usual threats from these storms can be expected (dry lightning, small hail, gusty outflow winds, and some locally heavy rainfall). Thursday, high pressure sets in and we will dry out and clear up.
Thanks for logging on and have a great weekend!
Dont forget that we have a Supermoon and a Meteor Shower over the next few days! Here is a link to the discussions on them:
Meteorologist Seth Phillips
Photos Submitted Today:
Herb Kennedy: Smoky Sunset