Cloud coverage over the region gave us a nice relief from the scorching heat we were otherwise supposed to get. The forecast high for today was to be 100 degrees in Medford and 90 in Klamath Falls. The best we got to was 95 and 88 respectively. Which, is still warmer than expected because in the early afternoon, clearing in the cloud coverage allowed for a little bit of radiation to make it to the surface and we jumped about 5-8 degrees in a matter of only a few hours. That’s a big jump in a short amount of time. Temperatures will remain very hot for the next several day, until about Thursday, when a weak frontal boundary brings in slightly cooler air that will drop temperatures down to a little above average.
The stratus deck hovered over the area and kept the daytime heating at bay. This is also the reason that there were no thunderstorms in the region today. We had enough instability, and a slight bit of moisture, but what we didn’t have is the daytime heating to kick off any activity. We need all three to get a healthy dose of storms going. However, when the early afternoon clearing happened in Northern California, a rogue cell popped up around 4:00 this afternoon. There was not enough development with this particular cell to get any lightning strikes out of it, and only a trace amount of rain fell from its base. Monday will bring yet another chance for these storms. However, there is only a little amount of moisture in the atmosphere at that time so any activity will be mostly dry. Dry lightning is expected to be the main threat Monday afternoon.
Tuesday through the weekend, more of a southwesterly push brings in more tropical moisture to the region, and therefore we will see a better chance for widespread showers. Lightning will still be a factor, however rain will be more abundant. Small hail and gusty outflow boundaries will also be threats to consider. Each afternoon seems to bring a progressively better set of conditions for these storms to develop.
Thanks for logging on and have a great week!
Meteorologist Seth Phillips