The thunderstorm threat has begun across the viewing area. This will continue through the end of the weekend as an upper level cut off low sits over the region. Several disturbances will swing around this system, and bring waves of showers and storms to the area.
Beginning this evening, the first round will begin. Because moisture is limited right now, this will be mostly dry thunderstorms. The National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning for the entire viewing area except extreme coastal areas in Curry County. Strong winds and cloud to ground lightning will impose great danger with the current wildfires burning across the region. All activity will have to be monitored very closely, but this is well known across the fire crews and different complexes.
Not much will change from day to day through the end of the week and into the weekend. Increasing clouds will lead to eventual shower and storm development by late afternoon and early evening each day. Into Wednesday morning the potential for nocturnal thunderstorms exists. A surge of moisture arriving this evening will help feed anything that develops overnight. Through the week rain shower and thunderstorms will become more capable of producing heavy rains at times. This however will take some time until the moisture content continues to rise under the string of southerly flow.
As for smoke coverage, expect inland areas to continue to see higher smoke concentrations, similar to Tuesday. The offshore flow during the overnight hours will no longer be. This will keep smoke confined more so to inland areas through the week. If showers and storms are able to drop some good rains, this may help to improve air quality across the region. However, this will only be for a limited time because large improvements with the fires must be made for this to happen.