Thunderstorms will become a threat beginning Tuesday. A cut off low is going to hang along the western coast, bringing surges of moisture and several disturbances our way through the week. Storm activity will start off dry tomorrow, and isolated as well. Showers are more likely than thunderstorms, but a surge of moisture will move in from the South Tuesday evening and this will allow for the potential for overnight storms.
Showers and storms will continue consecutively every day this week, but become more scattered and wet by Thursday & Friday. These thunderstorms will be capable of dropping a decent amount of rain into the latter half of the week, but the stronger winds they may put out as well as any cloud to ground lightning strikes will work against firefighting efforts. Even areas west of the Cascades are included in this thunderstorm threat beginning tomorrow.
Thursday the upper level system will move inland, but it will still linger across the same area. With very little movement expected through the weekend, I am thinking to extend thunderstorm activity into Sunday & possibly Monday at this point.
Winds should remain fairly calm into the coming days, with the exception of any winds that develop from thunderstorms. A weak offshore flow will again develop this evening and carry smoke into the Illinois Valley and Curry County. But by midday a more north, northwesterly wind will drive smoke inland again. The Rogue Valley will have similar smoke conditions to Monday, this includes the morning and afternoon. For the remainder of the week, I think Curry County will then catch a little bit of a break from the smoke and most will stay inland. On the other hand, with the high moisture content of the expected air mass, heavy rain may help to flush out some of the smoke in the air. This though will just be temporary, as large improvements with the fires would also be needed for the air quality to continue to improve as well.
Meteorologist Alyssa Caroprese