The cut-off low finally opened up and is pushing to the east, but the wrap around the low will still usher in monsoon moisture and with increasing temperatures instability is still high in the afternoons. Moisture, instability and lift are the three ingredients to form thunderstorms, we’ll have plenty of instability through Saturday but moisture will be diminishing, and thus thunderstorm activity will diminish as well. Lift is provided easily by mountains and thus the best chance for thunderstorm formation through Saturday will be the Cascades, Siskiyou’s and higher elevations on the east side. Although the favored spots are further east, we could see a few thunderstorms reach as far west as Josephine county. Thunderstorms can produce heavy rain and small hail; the next few days storms will be moving slowly and thus heavy rain can lead to street flooding. Expect more sunshine each day and temperatures climbing 15 to 20 degrees above normal!
Don’t be fooled by the sunshine and warm weather, the threat for thunderstorms will be with us through Saturday. Diminishing activity each day, but still the potential…especially in the mountains and higher elevations. Remember conditions can change rapidly, from sunny to thunderstorm! Be prepared, and avoid being stuck outdoors when a thunderstorm hits
A fairly potent cold front is approaching the region from the Pacific but as it reaches our neck of the woods it will weaken providing only scattered to isolated showers Sunday evening into Monday. It will drop our temperatures 5 to 10 degrees across the region but will still be on the warm side.
Follow me on Facebook for more lightning safety tips and to see the Lightning Safety Crouch which may save your life if you’re caught in an open area outdoors! Thanks for logging on and stay safe!
Meteorologist Megan Parry