The cut-off low off the shore of central California shifted just a bit to the east yesterday bringing thunderstorms mainly along and east of the Cascades, and once again that region will be the favored spot for thunderstorm formation this afternoon and evening. We are going to see warmer temperatures the next several days with more sunshine, and that will increase the instability enough to keep the chance for afternoon thunderstorms through Thursday across the area and into Friday for northern California, the Cascades and the Siskiyou’s. The chance for thunderstorms will be decreasing each day so expecting any thunderstorm formation to become less widespread through the rest of the week due to decreasing moisture.
Through the work week temperatures will continue to warm back to 15 to 20 degrees above normal and we’ll see more sunshine as well, this is what will be providing the instability for thunderstorm formation. By Saturday I think we’ll remove the chance for showers and thunderstorms, but this is short-lived as a cold front will bring showers on Mother’s Day. The cold front is quite potent at this time, but as it approaches the Pacific Northwest it will encounter a high pressure that will drastically weaken it. At this time we could see some decent rain at the coast with only scattered showers inland. However, the trough associated with the front has the potential to become cut-off, if this is the case then we’ll see the chance for showers into the beginning of next week. If this low becomes cut-off it will once again tap into tropical moisture and bring much needed showers to the area. Stay tuned to Newswatch12 for the latest!
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Meteorologist Megan Parry