After the rainfall and cloud coverage over the last few days, a high pressure pattern is moving back in. This will clear out the clouds and move in warmer air from the south. Right now, our upper level winds are in a zonal (west-to-east) flow bringing in a little bit of moisture. In the next few days, this flow pattern will change and warmer air will move in as a result. We already have seen temperature warm a bit since the end of last week. Our afternoon highs for Saturday were right around average for this time of the year. However, temperatures will continue to warm up each afternoon, all the way until Tuesday.
Starting Sunday, a thermal trough will set up along the coast. Winds will then shift out of the north and cause a weak to moderate Chetco event at Brookings. The highs for Brookings will move into the 80’s as the rest of the coast sits in the upper 50’s or 60’s. If this were a strong Chetco event, highs would reach the 90’s. Brookings will see it’s warmest temperatures Monday as the thermal trough strengthens a bit. Inland areas on Sunday will be a few degrees warmer on Sunday.
On Tuesday, the thermal trough moves inland, allowing for more of an onshore flow at the coast. This will slowly lower the afternoon highs at Brookings back down to normal by mid week. As the trough moves inland, the west side and Northern California will warm up significantly. Temperatures in the mid to upper 90’s are expected for these areas. Places in Northern California will breach the 100 degree mark on Tuesday afternoon. This will be the warmest temperatures we’ve seen so far this year. We will be nearing record temperatures as we approach Tuesday afternoon.
After Tuesday, the ridge will break down and the thermal trough will be off to the east. This will start the cooling of the afternoon highs back down to average. At this point, a few disturbances will move into the region. There is enough instability and a little bit of moisture that some thunderstorms will form. The question is, will there be enough moisture for rain. If not, dry lightning will become a concern. Right now, the activity is confined to our normal thunderstorm spots (Northern California, the Basin, and the Cascades). Thunderstorms look to continue into Thursday, but models may keep them going into the weekend. We will keep an eye on this activity as we progress through the week.
Thanks for logging on and stay cool out there!
Meteorologist Seth Phillips
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