Cloud cover this morning is on the heavier side, and for this reason I have increased coverage for the East Side and Siskiyou County through Tuesday. I think the Rogue Valley will see mostly sunny conditions until early afternoon. Drizzle has been off and on through the course of the morning along the Coast and spotty showers have popped up here and there across Siskiyou County.
It seems as though the instability is not high enough today for thunderstorms to really develop. For this reason, I am expecting spotty showers mainly over Siskiyou County. A weak disturbance to our south is sending clouds our way, so this is a contributing factor to the lack of strong solar heating and thus instability.
Tomorrow though could cause problems. High moisture content and increased instability will raise the threat for thunderstorms. These will be isolated, but dry and most likely over Siskiyou County. The NWS has issued a Fire Weather Watch to account for the dry fuel moistures and potential for dry lightning. If any thunderstorms do develop, dry lightning could spark a fire instantly with the dangerously dry conditions we’ve seen over the last several weeks. The Fire Weather Watch remains in effect through Wednesday for Siskiyou, Modoc, Klamath & Lake Counties. Also, the fire danger threat is extreme for Jackson, Josephine, Klamath & Lake Counties.
There is discussion the watch may be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning. For now, the conditions will continue to be monitored. It seems as though any thundershower activity will be confined to the East Side and Siskiyou County, with the greatest threat lying over Siskiyou & Modoc Counties. Only rain showers are expected to develop in the valleys, however if a thunderstorm does develop it may move north and make it over the mountains into the Valley.
The thunderstorm threat diminishes by the weekend, and come Sunday and Monday, a cooler air mass will begin moving into place! Finally! This is going to bring temperatures back to seasonal norms.
Meteorologist Alyssa Caroprese