Significant Rain Event This Weekend

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It’s a cold but sunny start to this Friday across the viewing area. Temperatures are below freezing in the Klamath Basin and near freezing across Northern California. A disturbance that was originally supposed to pass to our north, is now moving south and east this morning. For this reason it seems as though all areas will see increasing cloud cover this afternoon with light to moderate showers for the Coast and Umpqua Basin. The further north you head in the Valley, the better the chance for a shower.

This system is a quick mover and will already clear the region by tomorrow but a significant rain event will follow. Moisture from a dying typhoon in the Western Pacific is getting caught up in a low pressure system crossing the ocean. This will arrive along the Coast Saturday evening and move inland Sunday. This event is looking like a “mid wet season event” meaning it’s the type of storm we would see a few months out from the start of fall.

It’s likely this system will push the current September, which happens to be the 9th wettest in Medford history, to the second wettest. Along the Coast 2”-4” of rain is expected with locally 6” or more. Inland areas will receive between 1” & 2.” Those areas such as the Rogue Valley that do not typically see a lot of rain will most likely pick up between 0.30”-0.50.”

Strong winds will also accompany this storm. Winds will gust to 60-65mph, with sustained (average) winds out of the South at 25-40mph. Rivers, creeks and streams – mainly along the Coast – are expected to significantly rise, however there is not concern for flooding because of the low river levels and lack of snow to melt. Speaking of snow, snow levels will remain fairly high due to the tropical connection associated with this disturbance. Another concern is mudslides at the burn out areas from the summer wildfires through the duration of the storm.

Timing looks to be rain at the Coast Saturday evening, driving inland Sunday to the valleys, mountains and Siskiyou County, and then rain moving into the Klamath Basin Monday with showers wrapping up elsewhere. The strongest winds are expected through Sunday and a high wind warning may be warranted for parts of the region.

Meteorologist Alyssa Caroprese