Short Term (Saturday PM – Tuesday):
After the week of sunny skies and record setting temperatures, we will have a different story moving through the weekend. A low pressure system off the coast of Washington will start to track its way south and bring in precipitation to our region. Looking at the visible satellite imagery, cumulus clouds have really picked up over the last 6 hours. Moisture is moving into the area and a few showers have picked up in Douglas County and east of Lake County. Instability will present with these storms and will allow for thunderstorms to develop with this system. Looks like the greatest areas of instability overnight Saturday will be at the coast and in the Cascades. Small hail will also be possible with the strong updrafts and cooler air aloft associated with this storm. All other locations in Oregon will see isolated showers overnight Saturday. Northern California will not see showers develop until Sunday. Temperatures through the next few days will be below average because of the cooler air behind the fronts and the cloud coverage. Snow levels will remain high with this system only dropping to 6,000′ in the Siskiyous and 5,500′ in the Cascades on Monday morning. Any snow that does fall will be light and no accumulation is expected for the duration of the storm.
As the upper level low tracks to the south, shower activity will increase through Sunday and Monday. The heaviest of rain will fall Monday afternoon ahead of another front moving in. Thunderstorms with the possibility of hail will also remain present through Monday for all areas. By Tuesday, the storm system will move into Northern California/Northern Nevada. This will allow for a wrap-around of showers and thunderstorms in Northern California and Southern Klamath and Lake counties. Shower activity should end in the early afternoon of Tuesday and clouds will begin decreasing. Not all areas will see rain all of the time throughout the next few days as most of the shower activity will be isolated in nature.
Long Term (Wednesday – Saturday):
A high pressure ridge will move in and build Wednesday clearing the skies and allowing for temperatures to warm up. We won’t see temperatures get as high as they did this week, but we will still be above our seasonal average. The axis of this high pressure ridge will be over our region Thursday allowing for lower 80s in the western valleys and Northern California. Lower 70s will hit the coast and basin, and the Cascades and Siskiyous will see lower 60s. Clouds will begin increasing on Friday ahead of another active system that will swing in on Saturday. Right now models are all over the place on how much precipitation we will get next weekend. Just expecting mostly cloud coverage for now, however as we move closer to next weekend models will begin to come into agreement as to if and how much precipitation will fall.
Thanks for logging on and enjoy the rest of your weekend!
Meteorologist Seth Phillips