Showers have increased throughout the area with an upper level low dropping a series of boundaries in the area. A few shortwaves are traveling through the jet stream causing disturbances and instability to move onshore. Rain has been spotty and isolated through much of the region. Some areas received heavy precipitation at times and other locations saw no rain at all. We have been receiving measurable precipitation in some areas, but unfortunately nothing that will satisfy our deficits. We will receive more precipitation amounts, as another shortwave will keep shower activity present through tomorrow. Cold air aloft above the warmer air near the surface will cause instability and strong updrafts that could bring a slight chance for thunderstorms Monday afternoon. The latest models show that this instability has weakened slightly. Still, lightning could be present in some of these storms.
Snow levels are near 5,500′ for Sunday afternoon raising slightly to 6,000′ by sundown. These levels will drop to around 5,000′ after midnight on Monday and Tuesday. This will allow for a rain and snow mixture in the upper elevations of the Cascades and Siskiyous. Very little accumulation is expected and anything that does stick overnight will melt quickly as temperatures rise above freezing.
All shower activity will end early on Tuesday, with the exception being a few light showers in the mountains in the afternoon. After this, high pressure will build into the region and Wednesday is looking to be dry, once again. Models are trending towards a system moving towards the coast by Thursday morning bringing a chance for showers. Models are still not agreeing on how much rainfall at the moment, but we will get a better idea in the next 24 hours. Clouds will stick around after the system moves through, into the weekend.
Thanks for logging on and have a great week!
Meteorologist Seth Phillips