Summer weather is back and a high pressure ridge is building in. This is evident in the clear skies and warm temperatures that we had on Sunday. Temperatures were anywhere from 5-15 degrees warmer today than just 24 hours ago. The warm spot was at Brookings where a weak Chetco set up is in place for at least the next 48 hours. North northwesterly flow is moving the warm air down the Chetco River Valley into Brookings Harbor, really keeping the temperatures up. Now this is not a full blown event. If it were, temperatures would’ve been well into the upper 80′s/lower 90′s at Brookings today. However, the best they’ve reached so far is 77. Still, that’s up 13 degrees from the rest of the South Coast, so we know for sure that some offshore flow is happening.
There is a thermal trough that set itself up at the coast and it will strengthen on Monday. This is when the warmest temperatures at the coast will happen. After that, the thermal trough will move further inland. That will cool temperatures at the South Coast back down to around average. However, when the trough moves inland it will heat everyone else up. This will be Tuesday afternoon. Very hot air from the South will filter into the region. The triple digits will actually start in Happy Camp, CA (one of the warmest spots we forecast for) on Monday. However, Tuesday will see more locations breach the 100 degree mark. This includes areas in the Rogue Valley. As of now, the forecast high for Tuesday in Medford is 101 degrees! These will be the warmest temperatures of the year, so far. Temperatures Tuesday will be closer to records than actual averages. We normally see a warm up at the end of June every one or two years so even though we will be close to records, the chances of us actually breaking them are slim. For example, the record for Medford on July 1st is 108. We’ll be hot, but not that hot. Regardless, if you are planning outdoor events for the afternoons coming up, you may want to move them to the late morning or early evening. Temperatures will be cooler at these time. If you find yourself outside in the afternoon on Monday and Tuesday, wear sunscreen and drink plenty of water. Heat stroke is common when we have these hot temperatures and an abundance of dry air.
Starting Wednesday, temperatures will drop about 10 degrees for afternoon highs as a weak cold front will move in some cooler air from offshore. This will not really cool us down, but it will at least take away the scorching heat that we will get Tuesday. There is also a chance for dry thunderstorms on Wednesday for Northern California, the Cascades, and the Basin. The reason for dry thunderstorms is that the moisture associated with this weak front will move to the north of us and therefore we will only see clouds with small amounts of moisture. Also, there will be plenty of dry air leftover from the ridge. This is an equation that usually spells dry lightning. The little bit of moisture in the growing clouds form the lightning, however there is not enough precipitable water. Now this doesn’t mean that we won’t see any rain. Some areas will receive light and isolated showers. It’s just that the probability of dry lightning will be much higher. The best chance for these storms is in the afternoon on Wednesday. After that, models have us in a continual dry and warm pattern into the weekend.
Thanks for logging on and have a great week!
Meteorologist Seth Phillips
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