The thermal trough centered over California is now ushering in warm weather from the southwest and highs the next several days will be 15 to 20 degrees above normal! The hot, dry and sunny weather will continue through at least Saturday before the weather pattern changes. If you’re spending time outdoors remember to wear sunscreen and drink plenty of water.
We’ve had high pressure providing a blocking pattern almost all week, and we’ll see a low pressure form south of the high and this is STILL a blocking pattern called a Rex Block. Blocking pattern means that storms can’t penetrate it and stay north or south of the region. The interesting thing is that this Rex Block IS going to be the reason we add a chance for thunderstorms into the forecast early next week. How is this so? Well the circulation around the high is clockwise, around the low is counter-clockwise. A low pressure is going to be passing to the north of us (because of the blocking pattern) over the next few days, but the circulation around the high and low are not going to allow the passing low to make it far. The combined circulation is going to suck the passing low back to the west. The low is going to become partially cut-off from the jetstream and will be fueled by subtropical moisture, and due to the hot weather we’ll have instability, add the two together and the result is thunderstorms. Chance for thunderstorms will mainly be late afternoon and early evening after daytime heating increases the instability.
This is a good time to remind everyone about fire safety, and it just so happens to be the National Weather Service’s topic of their Severe Weather Awareness Week of today…Wildfires. You can find a link to their website under Weather Links.
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Meteorologist Megan Parry