High pressure and Desert Southwest air has been bringing our temperatures up slowly over the last few days, and this pattern will continue for a while. Just a few days ago, temperatures were 5-10 degrees below average and very comfortable. Yesterday, temperatures were around average or a few degrees off. Today, evidence in the 24hr- temperature change has shown temperatures about 2-8 degrees warmer for inland locations. The coast, being the exception because of the cloud coverage this morning and the onshore flow in the afternoon. Brookings was back an average of 10 degrees today because of the Chetco Effect now breaking down. Areas that broke 100 degrees today include Dunsmuir, CA, Hornbrook, CA, and the Illinois Valley Airport. More will follow in the coming days including locations in the Rogue Valley. If these temperatures continue in the 100′s for the rest of the month, we could break the overall average temperature record for the month of July. If we average close to 80 degrees for the entire month, that will make it the warmest July on record. We will have to stay in the triple digits, or very close, for the rest of the month.
Thunderstorms are the next big factor in the forecast. With each run of the models, activity seems to be persistent through the extended period. There is a slight chance on Sunday afternoon for thunderstorms in the Basin and Northern California. Monday seems to have a better chance. Still, Tuesday through Saturday, will be even better. We are getting sandwiched between two upper level features that will shift winds out of the south and allow for moisture and instability to enter the region. This mixed with daytime heating will create widespread thunderstorms. Dry air at the surface with bring a chance for dry lightning. Strong updrafts will bring a chance for small hail. When the rain falls through the upper air in the storms, it cools the air. Cooler air is more dense and falls to the ground. This causes strong winds from the storms themselves called “outflow boundaries.” Upon hitting the ground the air spreads out in all directions. The air that moves in the direction of the already prevailing wind can be very strong. Outflow winds can cause gusts that exceed 80 mph. Last week’s storms caused a few of these outflow winds and a storm report of 50 mph was recorded. The storms this week are looking to be a bit stronger and have more moisture associated with them, therefore, stronger gusts are expected.
Thanks for logging on and enjoy your weekend!
Meteorologist Seth Phillips
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